stevejhx: about 7 years ago
Sage advice from Robert Shiller in January 2005, BEFORE IT ALL STARTED:http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/13/real_estate/realestate_shiller1_0502/index.htmIt is true that, for the United States as a whole,...
View ArticleJuiceMan: about 7 years ago
Here is another article from 2005. steve, what happened to the market in 2005 after all of these "economists" predicted the end of the earth? LMAOhttp://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/04/realestate/04reals.html
View Articlestevejhx: about 7 years ago
And that article, JM, is correct about everything, including the NYC suburbs, but not Manhattan. As you know, 2006 was a banner year for Wall Street bonuses, based on repackaging junk mortgages that...
View Articlezorter: about 7 years ago
Steve Around 11:00pm please go on another diatribe thats when I have my milk and get ready to go to sleep
View Articlejrd: about 7 years ago
Shiller has certainly been a bear on housing for years, but it is easy to stand on the sidelines and point at something you call a housing bubble and quite another thing to call the peak, especially...
View ArticlePopomobile: about 7 years ago
Wow, housing returned 12x from 1948 (16,000) to 2004 (190,000), that is very impressive.
View ArticleVVerain: about 7 years ago
I doubt Popomobile did the annual growth math, but in fact what it highlights is that the return over this period exceeded average passbook savings rates. Bank savings aren't impressive either, but it...
View Articlestevejhx: about 7 years ago
"in fact what it highlights is that the return over this period exceeded average passbook savings rates."As usual, a specious argument from vverain. You (somewhat) mention, yet (completely) discount,...
View Articlelorenzonyc: about 7 years ago
Housing does produce income in the context of not having to pay rent. The growth CAGRs Shiller uses are only for the entry and exit values but ignore the annual cash flow savings of not paying rent....
View Articlestevejhx: about 7 years ago
That 4.5% rate of growth is nominal; compound inflation from 1948 through 2005 was 3.75%, so the real rate of growth was .75%.Do the S&P 500 with reinvested dividends from 1948 through 2005 (moving...
View ArticleVVerain: about 7 years ago
I like this justaposition of arguments:stevejhx: Owning real estate is a risky venture: it is expensive, and highly illiquid, and completely unlike passbooks savings accounts. It's like comparing...
View Articlewill: about 7 years ago
Debate has not changed much the past year...But in fact, so far, so good for those of us living in a reality based...
View Articlestevejhx: about 7 years ago
That article is about right, except that things are going to continue sideways.I trust streeteasy's inventory figures more - Miller Samuel is paid by Elliman.
View Articleaboutready: about 7 years ago
Miller Samuel is, as far as I can discern, as honest as they come. I'm a total bear when it comes to this market.
View ArticleVVerain: about 7 years ago
As restated below, for the average American, according to Steve, the wise course is to invest in the S&P, not in home ownership which has done well over time (even according to Steve's own cited...
View Articlestevejhx: about 7 years ago
"home ownership which has done well over time"No it hasn't. Read the article.
View ArticleOberon: about 7 years ago
Steve - "Miller Samuel is paid by Elliman.", what's your source on this ?
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