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Channel: The notion that home prices always go up is very strong, and very wrong.
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stevejhx: about 7 years ago

Sage advice from Robert Shiller in January 2005, BEFORE IT ALL STARTED:http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/13/real_estate/realestate_shiller1_0502/index.htmIt is true that, for the United States as a whole,...

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ca12ny: about 7 years ago

there is medication available for this type of OCD

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JuiceMan: about 7 years ago

Here is another article from 2005. steve, what happened to the market in 2005 after all of these "economists" predicted the end of the earth? LMAOhttp://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/04/realestate/04reals.html

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stevejhx: about 7 years ago

And that article, JM, is correct about everything, including the NYC suburbs, but not Manhattan. As you know, 2006 was a banner year for Wall Street bonuses, based on repackaging junk mortgages that...

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zorter: about 7 years ago

Steve Around 11:00pm please go on another diatribe thats when I have my milk and get ready to go to sleep

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jrd: about 7 years ago

Shiller has certainly been a bear on housing for years, but it is easy to stand on the sidelines and point at something you call a housing bubble and quite another thing to call the peak, especially...

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Popomobile: about 7 years ago

Wow, housing returned 12x from 1948 (16,000) to 2004 (190,000), that is very impressive.

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faustus: about 7 years ago

Only if you consider a 4.5% CAGR impressive, Popomobile.

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VVerain: about 7 years ago

I doubt Popomobile did the annual growth math, but in fact what it highlights is that the return over this period exceeded average passbook savings rates. Bank savings aren't impressive either, but it...

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stevejhx: about 7 years ago

"in fact what it highlights is that the return over this period exceeded average passbook savings rates."As usual, a specious argument from vverain. You (somewhat) mention, yet (completely) discount,...

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lorenzonyc: about 7 years ago

Housing does produce income in the context of not having to pay rent. The growth CAGRs Shiller uses are only for the entry and exit values but ignore the annual cash flow savings of not paying rent....

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stevejhx: about 7 years ago

That 4.5% rate of growth is nominal; compound inflation from 1948 through 2005 was 3.75%, so the real rate of growth was .75%.Do the S&P 500 with reinvested dividends from 1948 through 2005 (moving...

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VVerain: about 7 years ago

I like this justaposition of arguments:stevejhx: Owning real estate is a risky venture: it is expensive, and highly illiquid, and completely unlike passbooks savings accounts. It's like comparing...

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stevejhx: about 7 years ago

11% vverain.What's your point?

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will: about 7 years ago

Debate has not changed much the past year...But in fact, so far, so good for those of us living in a reality based...

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stevejhx: about 7 years ago

That article is about right, except that things are going to continue sideways.I trust streeteasy's inventory figures more - Miller Samuel is paid by Elliman.

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aboutready: about 7 years ago

Miller Samuel is, as far as I can discern, as honest as they come. I'm a total bear when it comes to this market.

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VVerain: about 7 years ago

As restated below, for the average American, according to Steve, the wise course is to invest in the S&P, not in home ownership which has done well over time (even according to Steve's own cited...

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stevejhx: about 7 years ago

"home ownership which has done well over time"No it hasn't. Read the article.

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Oberon: about 7 years ago

Steve - "Miller Samuel is paid by Elliman.", what's your source on this ?

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